Meit, M., Redlener, I., Briggs, T.W. et al. (2011). Rural and Suburban Population Surge Following Detonation of an Improvised Nuclear Device: A New Model to Estimate Impact. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness. Volume 5. Supplement 1.
The authors describe a “push-pull” model that estimated the evacuation from Manhattan to counties within a 150 mile radius after a nuclear detonation. This model predicted that arriving evacuees could increase the population needing services by between 50 and 150 percent.