Estimating the United States Demand for Influenza Antivirals and the Effect on Severe Influenza Disease during a Potential Pandemic

Following the detection of a novel influenza strain A (H7N9), the authors modeled the use of antiviral treatment in the U.S. to mitigate severe disease across a range of hypothetical pandemic scenarios. The model included estimates of attack rate, healthcare-seeking behavior, prescription rates, and other related data. Based on these inputs, the total antiviral regimens estimated to be available in the U.S. (as of April 2013) were deemed sufficient to meet treatment needs for the scenarios considered.