Nuno, M., Reichert, T.A., Chowell, B., and Gumel, A.B. (2008). Protecting Residential Care Facilities from Pandemic Influenza. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science of the United States of America. 105(30): 10625-30.
The authors of this study modeled a residential care facility to determine if conditions exist under which non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) alone might prevent the introduction of a pandemic virus. They found that “the effectiveness of NPIs depends strongly on a timely implementation and full compliance,” and that “great risks are associated with premature relaxation of these control measures.”