Evidence Synthesis and Decision Modeling to Support Complex Decisions Stockpiling Neuraminidase Inhibitors for Pandemic Influenza Usage

The authors designed a decision model to determine whether the benefits of stockpiling antivirals for an influenza pandemic outweigh the negative consequences of not stockpiling. They estimated both the cost-effectiveness benefits as well as the health benefits, which were measured as deaths averted by stockpiling. While they found that the probability of not using a stockpile was greater than using it, stockpiling was justified due to the catastrophic losses that would occur from a severe pandemic without it.